CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-07-27T03:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-07-27T03:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17401/-1
CME Note: The source is an eruption from AR 2849 (~S15E25) in AIA 193, AIA 304, and EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-07-27T01:51Z, with darkening and bright post-eruptive arcades. It is associated with the long duration B1.9 class flare peaking at 2021-07-27T02:13Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-30T14:21Z (-10.5h, +10.5h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - STEREO A between about 2021-07-29T23:27Z and 2021-07-30T11:11Z (average arrival 2021-07-30T05:43Z) for 56% of simulations. Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-07-30T03:46Z and 2021-07-31T04:48Z (average arrival 2021-07-30T14:21Z) for 54% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 98% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-07-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086/20210727_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-07-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086/20210727_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-07-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086/20210727_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-07-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086/20210727_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-07-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086/20210727_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086_arrival_STA.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-07-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086/20210727_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX086_STA_stack.gifLead Time: 41.93 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-07-28T20:25Z
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